Assuming we haven't missed something in the dd, trusting management coz no reason not to until now, reading Peter Lynch again to stomach the volatility , we'll get there
If they continue ‘organic’ dilution of shares outstanding at around 4% this year working off your numbers I get 1171M diluted shares at q1 and 1199.9M at q4.?
Hard to see any eps surprise in q1 if diluted shares increase by 13.8% q on q (16.6% over fy 24)
If they meet mid range of net income, that'd be 8.3c eps diluted for 2024.
Overall dilution from SBC should be slowing down moving forward. I hope they can get it closer to 2% in the next several years.
For Q1, the EPS is calculated on the weighted average shares, and since these shares weren't added until March, they actually won't fully be added in for the EPS calculation this quarter. They'll only count for the portion of the quarter where they were in the float, which I believe is March 6 for the 2029 convertible note shares and March 25 or 26 for the 2026 convertible note shares. So I think fully diluted shares will probably only be up like 4-5% QoQ including SBC (that's just a guesstimate).
They will be fully counted for the entirety of Q2.
Does anyone know why they have to have a cap for the capped call? Why not just do a call option by itself with higher upside?
Finally got around to reading the whole thing. Your work is of great service. Thanks as always Chris.
You have the clearest DD on this company out there by far.When the SP will be 20$ , I'll donate 10 memberships so you'll start the youtube channel
Let's hope for all our sakes that it gets there sooner rather than later.
Assuming we haven't missed something in the dd, trusting management coz no reason not to until now, reading Peter Lynch again to stomach the volatility , we'll get there
If they continue ‘organic’ dilution of shares outstanding at around 4% this year working off your numbers I get 1171M diluted shares at q1 and 1199.9M at q4.?
Hard to see any eps surprise in q1 if diluted shares increase by 13.8% q on q (16.6% over fy 24)
If they meet mid range of net income, that'd be 8.3c eps diluted for 2024.
Overall dilution from SBC should be slowing down moving forward. I hope they can get it closer to 2% in the next several years.
For Q1, the EPS is calculated on the weighted average shares, and since these shares weren't added until March, they actually won't fully be added in for the EPS calculation this quarter. They'll only count for the portion of the quarter where they were in the float, which I believe is March 6 for the 2029 convertible note shares and March 25 or 26 for the 2026 convertible note shares. So I think fully diluted shares will probably only be up like 4-5% QoQ including SBC (that's just a guesstimate).
They will be fully counted for the entirety of Q2.
Thanks so much for all the time you put into this
Great article!