I can’t do that in depth, so much appreciated as always Chris.
My guestimate is 1.5c eps this qtr, growing q on q to 11c total for ‘24, that’d be 100PE at $11 SP.
Even factoring in dilution, i don’t see how from q2 on, circa $45M savings to bottom line won’t add to eoy eps?
The ever extending out of higher for longer, supports managements’ slight contraction stance on lending and i can’t see a SP higher than $12 max. being justified by the most likely numbers this year.
Given their caution on lending conditions, won’t they’ll pay down their revolver, assuming it is revolving? as in, they can access the money later on for originations in a more favourable market.
If most of any fed rate reduction cycle happens in ‘25, SP goes a lot higher on that and on ‘25 estimates imo, as long as they’ve not disappointed/missed but rather, had 5 consecutive profitable qtrs.
Personally, i see ‘26 as the peak year of SP growth because multiples will contract after that on more steady and consistent rev. and eps growth.
Great article! SOFI has turned the corner of profitability and looks to be a rewarding long term opportunity with upside pps potential at current price levels.
That will be fun, to see how close your predictions match up with actual results. Thanks for the article.
I can’t do that in depth, so much appreciated as always Chris.
My guestimate is 1.5c eps this qtr, growing q on q to 11c total for ‘24, that’d be 100PE at $11 SP.
Even factoring in dilution, i don’t see how from q2 on, circa $45M savings to bottom line won’t add to eoy eps?
The ever extending out of higher for longer, supports managements’ slight contraction stance on lending and i can’t see a SP higher than $12 max. being justified by the most likely numbers this year.
Given their caution on lending conditions, won’t they’ll pay down their revolver, assuming it is revolving? as in, they can access the money later on for originations in a more favourable market.
If most of any fed rate reduction cycle happens in ‘25, SP goes a lot higher on that and on ‘25 estimates imo, as long as they’ve not disappointed/missed but rather, had 5 consecutive profitable qtrs.
Personally, i see ‘26 as the peak year of SP growth because multiples will contract after that on more steady and consistent rev. and eps growth.
Great article! SOFI has turned the corner of profitability and looks to be a rewarding long term opportunity with upside pps potential at current price levels.